Eicher Motors Q3FY19E Result Expectation

Eicher Motors Limited (EML) Consensus expectations for Q3FY19E:

Standalone:

• Revenue: Rs2,314cr (up 2% yoy, down 4% qoq). We expect weak volumes in Q3FY19 for RE (down 6% yoy, 7% qoq) to be offset by higher realization (up 9% yoy, 4% qoq), led by introduction of newer models with disc brakes and ABS, which have a higher average selling price per unit. This will be the first time in several quarters that RE will see single digit (yoy) growth.
• EBITDA: Rs717cr (flat yoy, down 3% qoq).
• EBITDA margin: 31% (contraction of 73bps yoy, expansion of 38bps qoq). We expect weak volume growth and high commodity costs to dampen operating performance in Q3FY19, leading to yoy margin contraction.
• PAT: Rs526cr (up 11% yoy, 5% qoq). PAT growth rate will be boosted by higher non-operating income.

VECV:

• Revenue: Rs2,643cr (up 2% yoy, down 11% qoq). At 4% yoy in Q3FY19, VECV volume growth was the weakest since Q1FY18. Realization was down 2% yoy and qoq due to high level of discounting prevailing in the CV space.
• EBITDA: Rs233cr (up 3% yoy, down 13% qoq).
• EBITDA margin: 8.8% (expansion of 7bps yoy, contraction of 20bps qoq). We expect weak margins due to lower volumes and higher discounts.
• PAT: Rs123cr (down 8% yoy, 13% qoq).

Consolidated:

• Revenue: Rs2,318cr (up 2% yoy, down 4% qoq).
• EBITDA: Rs711cr (flat yoy, down 3% qoq)
• EBITDA margin: 30.7% (contraction of 52bps yoy, expansion of 37bps yoy)
• PAT: Rs583cr (up 12% yoy, 6% qoq).

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