Saturday, 16 February 2019

India's trade deficit widens on rebound in crude oil prices

India’s trade deficit widened in January from a month ago as a rebound in oil prices weighed on the nation’s import bill. 

The gap between exports and imports was $14.7bn in January, compared with $13bn in December, data released by the Commerce Ministry showed on Friday. The deficit is wider than the $13.6bn median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 20 economists.


Exports rose 3.7% from a year ago to $26.4bn, compared with a 0.3% gain in December, while imports growth was flat year-on-year at $41.1bn versus a 2.4% drop in the previous month.


Key Insights


While weak global demand and trade tensions meant India’s exports performance remained subdued, imports growth was also muted owing to weak domestic demand for non-oil goods, including for gold, on a month-on-month basis.


Curbing imports is crucial for India to contain its current account deficit, seen as a key vulnerability for the rupee, Asia’s worst-performing currency so far this year.


India has been trying, though without much success, to scale up local manufacturing to cut reliance on imports. A rebound in crude prices remains a risk for the nation, which counts oil as its top import.


Oil imports increased to $11.24bn in January from $10.7bn in December.


Live Future Tips


Friday, 15 February 2019

Gold range bound as dollar caps gains; investors eye trade talks

Gold traded in a tight $3 range on Friday as concerns over an economic slowdown supported prices for the safe-haven metal and a firm dollar kept a lid on gains.
Investors are also awaiting further developments from ongoing U.S.-China trade talks before making any big moves.
Spot gold was steady at $1,312.56 per ounce as of 0419 GMT, while U.S. gold futures were up 0.1 percent at $1,315.40.
"Uncertainties around Brexit and trade talks and strengthening of the dollar are capping gold prices," said Brian Lan, managing director at dealer GoldSilver Central in Singapore.
"Until there is resolution to these global concerns we might see gold prices range bound between $1,305 and $1,326."
The dollar measured against six of its peers was up 0.1 percent at 97.04, after weakening by 0.12 percent in the previous session.
Two White House negotiators will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping later on Friday, but there has been no decision to extend a U.S. deadline for a deal by March 1, U.S. President Donald Trump's economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Thursday.

BUY GOLD ABOVE 32200 TARGETS 32240 / 32290 / 32350 STOPLOSS 32120

Thursday, 14 February 2019

Asian markets trade flat ahead of Sino-US talks

Asian stock markets were trading flat on Thursday ahead of outcome of high-level trade talks between the US and China, and data on the Chinese economy.

The South China Morning Post reported on Wednesday that China's Xi will meet with US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer on Friday, as per media reports.

The Shanghai composite slipped fractionally, the Shenzhen component was slightly higher, while the Shenzhen composite advanced by 0.034%.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 0.61%, South Korea's Kospi slipped 0.36%, Nikkei 225 rose 0.17% and the Topix added 0.15%.

Wednesday, 13 February 2019






Tuesday, 12 February 2019

Sun Pharma Q3FY19E earnings expectations

We expect Sun Pharma’s revenue to grow 13.7% yoy and 9% qoq. We expect India revenue to grow 7% yoy, while US revenue is expected to grow 12% yoy due to lower pricing pressure and new product launches from its specialty pipeline. EBITDA margins are expected to decline 74bps yoy and 97bps qoq due to the increase in the costs associated to the specialty products. PAT is expected to grow 157% yoy to Rs1,026cr due to the low base in Q3FY18 created by higher taxes as a result of change in the US tax rates.

Sun PharmaQ3FY19Eyoy (%)qoq (%)Q3FY18Q2FY19
Revenue (Rs Cr)7,56613.79.16,6536,938
EBITDA (Rs Cr)1,5969.84.31,4531,531
EBITDA Margin (%)21.1-74-9721.822.1
PAT (Rs Cr)1,026157.1-7.33991,107
EPS (Rs)4.3157.1-

Monday, 11 February 2019

Eicher Motors Q3FY19E Result Expectation

Eicher Motors Limited (EML) Consensus expectations for Q3FY19E:

  • Revenue: Rs2,314cr (up 2% yoy, down 4% qoq). We expect weak volumes in Q3FY19 for RE (down 6% yoy, 7% qoq) to be offset by higher realization (up 9% yoy, 4% qoq), led by introduction of newer models with disc brakes and ABS, which have a higher average selling price per unit. This will be the first time in several quarters that RE will see single digit (yoy) growth.
  • EBITDA: Rs717cr (flat yoy, down 3% qoq).
  • EBITDA margin: 31% (contraction of 73bps yoy, expansion of 38bps qoq). We expect weak volume growth and high commodity costs to dampen operating performance in Q3FY19, leading to yoy margin contraction.
  • PAT: Rs526cr (up 11% yoy, 5% qoq). PAT growth rate will be boosted by higher non-operating income.
  • Revenue: Rs2,643cr (up 2% yoy, down 11% qoq). At 4% yoy in Q3FY19, VECV volume growth was the weakest since Q1FY18. Realization was down 2% yoy and qoq due to high level of discounting prevailing in the CV space.
  • EBITDA: Rs233cr (up 3% yoy, down 13% qoq).
  • EBITDA margin: 8.8% (expansion of 7bps yoy, contraction of 20bps qoq). We expect weak margins due to lower volumes and higher discounts.
  • PAT: Rs123cr (down 8% yoy, 13% qoq).
  • Revenue: Rs2,318cr (up 2% yoy, down 4% qoq).
  • EBITDA: Rs711cr (flat yoy, down 3% qoq)
  • EBITDA margin: 30.7% (contraction of 52bps yoy, expansion of 37bps yoy)
  • PAT: Rs583cr (up 12% yoy, 6% qoq).

Saturday, 9 February 2019

Stock Recommendations for February 11th-February 15th, 2019

Stock PickObservation
CompanySyngene International LimitedThe stock has witnessed a breakout from its sideways consolidation on the daily chart backed by an uptick in volumes.
It has shown positive momentum on the daily
 MACD Histogram.
We expect the uptrend to continue in the following week and recommend a buy with a target of Rs644.

Syngene International
Buy or SellBuy (Cash)
RangeRs 610-615
TargetRs 645            
Stop LossRs 593
Duration1 week
200 D-EMARs 575

Friday, 8 February 2019

BSE gets SEBI's nod to launch Gold Mini, Guarseed, Guargum futures contracts

BSE has received the market regulator Sebi’s consent to launch Gold Mini, Guarseed, and Guargum Future contracts on its newly-launched commodity derivatives segment.
These futures contracts are monthly compulsory deliverable contracts with a lot size of 100 grams, 10 metric tons and 10 metric tons, respectively.

Recently, BSE has entered into an agreement with various agricultural premier associations and warehouse service providers in India for the growth and development of commodity derivatives markets in the agricultural complex.
BSE commenced trading in gold and silver contracts on October 1, 2018, to mark its entry into the commodity derivatives segment and become the country’s first universal stock exchange with all asset classes including equity, mutual funds, currency and commodity in its portfolio.


Thursday, 7 February 2019

Q3FY19 results reaction: JSW Steel down; Vodafone Idea up

Shares of JSW Steel were trading 2% down on Thursday, while those of Vodafone Idea spurted 5% post their respective earnings for the third quarter of FY19.

JSW Steel Ltd missed estimates for Q3FY19 on the revenue and earnings fronts due to lower sales volumes. Revenue grew by 13.8% yoy to Rs20,318cr (expectation Rs21,268cr). EBITDA stood at Rs4,501cr, up 16.9% yoy against estimates of Rs4,438cr.

JSW Steel Ltd’s share price is currently at Rs274, down by Rs5.3 or 1.9%, from its previous closing of Rs279.30 on the BSE.

The scrip opened at Rs279.30 and has touched a high and low of Rs281.10 and Rs272.50, respectively. So far, 23,40,610 (NSE+BSE) shares have been traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs67,512.97cr.

Wednesday, 6 February 2019

Asian markets trade higher ahead of Trump’s speech

Asian stock markets were trading higher on Wednesday ahead of Donald Trump's State of the Union address. Donald Trump's annual address will be pored over for an idea about his thinking on a range of issues including the China trade war, the Mexican border wall stand-off and North Korea.

On currency markets, the pound was virtually unchanged against the dollar after tumbling on Tuesday on weak economic data and growing concerns about Britain leaving the EU without a deal.

The Dow ended Tuesday up 0.68%, the S&P 500 gained 0.47% while, Nasdaq rose 0.74%.

US crude futures rose 15 cents to $53.81 in early trade. Brent had ended Tuesday down 40 cents at $62.11.

Markets are closed in China, Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan and also in New Zealand.

Jakarta Composite, and Nikkei 225 gained nearly 1% each in today’s trade.

Tuesday, 5 February 2019

Gold prices near one-week lows as investors turn to riskier assets

Gold prices on Tuesday held near one-week lows touched in the previous session, pressured by a firmer dollar and as investor appetite for riskier assets improved in the wake of strong U.S. economic data.
Spot gold was steady at $1,313.95 per ounce at 0349 GMT. Prices in the last session fell to their lowest since Jan. 29 at $1,308.20.
U.S. gold futures dipped 0.1 percent to $1,318.40 an ounce.
Trading was muted in Asia with many markets closed for much of the week for Lunar New Year holidays.
"Gold fell overnight as bond yields ticked up and the dollar was also strong due to a risk-on environment," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst, OANDA.

"There is strong technical support and the Fed is mostly dovish, which should see gold supported around the $1,300-area. The focus would be more on the U.S. earnings season due to the absence of China for the whole week."
The dollar held on to recent gains against its peers on Tuesday, supported by the recovery in investor risk appetite.
Spot gold rose to its highest since late April at $1,326.30, last week, after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady and said it would be patient on further hikes amid a suddenly cloudy outlook for the U.S. economy due to global growth concerns and the U.S.-China trade dispute.

Monday, 4 February 2019

Rupee opens weak at 71.60 per dollar

The Indian rupee slipped in the early trade on Monday. It has opened lower by 36 paise at 71.60 per dollar on Monday versus Friday's close of 71.24.

Ahead of the interim budget announcement the rupee consolidated in a narrow range of 70.70 and 71.40 levels but post the budget announcement the rupee came under pressure. 


In the budget, the finance minister has upwardly revised the country’s fiscal deficit targets by 10 basis points for 2018-19 and 30 basis points in 2019-20 because of higher expenditure on an income support scheme.


The fiscal deficit for the current financial year is likely to be around 3.4% of GDP, marginally higher than the targeted 3.3%. Today, USD-INR pair is expected to quote in the range of 71.40 and 72.20, it added. 


Intraday Future Tips


Friday, 1 February 2019

Expectations from Interim Budget 2019:things to know

FM: Income tax relief on Notional Rent from unsold houses extended to 2 years

FM: TDS threshold on interest on post office and bank deposits raised from Rs 10,000 to Rs 40,000

FM: TDS threshold on rental income raised from Rs 1,80,000 to Rs 2,40,000

FM: No tax till Rs 5 lakh income for individuals tax payers. Standard reduction raised from Rs 40,000 to Rs 50,000

FM: Confident of reaching Rs 80,000 Cr divestment target

FM: Rs 56,619 crore made in budget estimate 2018-19 for welfare of SCs and STs, increased to Rs 62,474 crore in revised estimate 2018-19 has been further increased to Rs 76,800 crore in budget estimate 2019-20

FM: Capital expenditure - Rs 3.36,292 lakh crore

FM: The Group of Ministers is examining how prospective house buyers can benefit under Goods & Services Tax

FM: We are poised to become a 5 trillion dollar economy in the next 5 years

FM: Capital support for Railways at Rs 64,587 crore for FY20

FM: Defence budget enhanced beyond Rs 3 lakh crore

FM: Already disbursed Rs 35,000 crore for our soldiers under OROP, substantial hike in military service pay has been announced

FM: Gratuity limit increased from Rs 10 lakh to Rs 30 lakh

FM: The scheme, called Pradhan Mantri Shram Yogi Mandhan, will provide assured monthly pension of Rs 3,000 with contribution of Rs 100 per month for workers in unorganized sector after 60 years of age

FM: Our government proposes to launch a mega pension yojna

FM: 2% interest subvention to farmers pursuing animal husbandry and fisheries

FM: Will provide Rs 6,000 per annum to be transferred directly to farmers holding land of up to 2 hectres

FM: More than 98% rural sanitation coverage has been achieved; more than 5.45 lakh villages declared ODF

FM: Rs 60,000 crore allocated for MNREGA this year

FM: Have recovered Rs 3 lk cr via IBC process

FM: BoI, Bank Of Maharashtra & OBC have come out of PCA framework

FM: Fiscal deficit has been brought down to 3.4% in the revised estimate of 2018-19

FM: We have prepared the foundation for sustainable progress and prosperity for our people; we are moving towards realizing the dream of NewIndia by 2022

FM: We have set the stage for decades of high growth with path-breaking structural reforms such as the GST

FM: India attracted $239 billion FDI in the past five years