Monday, 18 June 2018

5 stocks that will trade with a negative bias in today's trade

Indian equities are expected to open lower amidst negative global cues. As the indices continue to remain volatile, stock-specific action will continue to remain in focus. Baring few counters, majority of the underline securities have witnessed short selling or long unwinding, indicating a negative bias for the markets. As all the Asian indices post deep cuts & with SGX Nifty trading 0.45% lower, a sharp decline in the stock price could be expected as fresh short selling could weigh in. 

Tracking the derivative data points, following is the list of stocks that will remain under selling pressure in today's trade:
UnderlineOI (lakhs)% OI ChgPrice% Price ChgAction
MCDOWELL-N121374.9679(80.4)Short Buildup
MRPL12944.488(5.1)Short Buildup
ADANIPORTS15113.7374(0.5)Short Buildup
ICICIPRULI11010.7399(0.8)Short Buildup
MGL19(5.8)832(0.4)Long Unwinding

Note: Open interest is the total number of outstanding contracts that are held by market participants at any point in time. It can be used to gauge & identify an intermediate trend of underline securities in future and options market.

Price and Open Interest general rule:
DecreaseIncreaseShort build up
DecreaseDecreaseLong Unwinding

Saturday, 16 June 2018

Bank Nifty ends the week on a flat note

Markets witnessed a volatile trading session with Nifty recovering its opening losses in the last one hour of trade. Nifty remained resilient, witnessing an identical recovery in the latter half of the session for the second day in a row.

Tracking the technical, Nifty has formed a spinning top candlestick pattern on the weekly chart, hinting a formation of immediate resistance at 10,900 levels. On the downside, the 10DEMA is placed around 10,650 mark, indicating an immediate support for the index.

Bank Nifty ended the week on a flat note, closing 0.1% lower. Tracking the technical, the index traded sideways for the third week in a row and has formed a bearish Dark cloud cover and Gravestone Doji candlestick pattern on the weekly chart, hinting a formation of immediate resistance at 27,000 levels.

Friday, 15 June 2018

5 stocks that can remain volatile in today's trade

Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. It is measured by using variance or the square root of variance i.e. standard deviation. Volatility is a double-edged sword; a surge in volatility could either benefit a trader or end up triggering his stop loss. 

Historical Volatility 

Historical volatility is a measure of how much the stock price fluctuated during a given time period (in past). It is referred to as the asset's actual or realized volatility.Traders make use of historical volatility to estimate the future movement, but there is a chance that the future volatility could deviate from the expected value as the factors influencing the price could change. Major fundamental changes could cause the asset price to stray away from the expected historical volatility. 

 Interpretation of Historical Volatility

  • Historical Volatility does not measure direction; it just measures how much the security's price is deviating from its average.
  • When a security’s Historical Volatility is rising, or higher than normal, it means prices are moving up and down farther/more quickly than usual and is a sign that something is likely to happen, or has already happened, regarding the underlying security.
  • When a security’s Historical Volatility is falling, it implies that the uncertainty regarding the security has reduced and things are returning back to usual.  
Following is the list of stocks that have witnessed maximum change in their historical volatility levels in yesterday's trade and are likely to remain volatile in today's trade:

Historical Volatility of Active Stocks
UnderlineHV % Chg

Thursday, 14 June 2018

ICICI Bank to sell 2% stake in life insurance arm

ICICI  Bank said it will offload 2% stake in its insurance arm ICICI Prudential Life in one or more tranches. This news will let the ICICI Bank stock to trade with positive bias today. The move will bring the promoter holding in the insurer closer to the regulatory limit. The Board of Directors of the bank today approved the sale of up to 2,87,11,100 shares, representing up to 2% of the issued and the paid-up equity share capital of ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company. Taking into consideration insurer's stock closing price of Rs 410.25 on BSE today, the stake sale is expected to fetch the bank Rs1,178cr. The floor price for the offer for sale has been fixed at Rs390 a share.

ICICI Prudential Life Insurance is a joint venture between ICICI Bank and the US-based Prudential Corporation Holdings. ICICI Bank held 54.88% stake in the JV, Prudential’s stake was at 25.83% as on March 31, 2018.

We forecast advances growth of 18% CAGR over FY18-20E driven by retail & SME segments. Slippages under watchlist to reduce with lending to higher rated companies and upgrades from lumpy steel and infra sectors. Further, bank’s focus on lending to higher rated companies is expected to assuage its NPAs woes. With robust retail advances and lower cost of funds, we see NIMs to increase by 30bps to 3.3% over FY18-20E. We forecast earnings CAGR of 96% over FY18-20E due to improved asset quality and higher PPOP. Hence, we expect RoE and RoA to improve by ~340bps and 30bps to 11.8% and 1.3% respectively by FY20E. The stock trades at ~1.5x on FY20E P/BV. We have positive outlook on the stock.


Wednesday, 13 June 2018

Stocks that have witnessed maximum change in their Put-Call ratio

What is Put/Call Ratio?   
Put/Call ratio (PCR) is a popular derivative indicator, specifically designed to help traders gauge the overall mood of the market. The ratio is calculated either on the basis of options trading volumes or on the basis of the open interest for a particular period.  If the ratio is more than 1, it means that more puts have been traded during the day and if it is less than 1 it means more calls have been traded. The PCR can be calculated for the options segment as a whole which includes individual stocks as well as indices.

Let’s see how PCR analysis can be interpreted taking option sellers into consideration who are the major players in the market as compared to the retail public who are usually on the buying side of the trade.    
Put / Call Ratio Interpretation
If put call ratio increases as minor dips getting bought in during an up trending marketBullish Indication. It means the put writers are aggressively writing at dips expecting the uptrend to continue
If put call ratio decreases while markets testing the resistance levelsBearish Indication. It means call writers are building fresh positions, expecting a limited upside or a correction in the market.
If put call ratio decreases during down trending marketBearish indication. It means option writers are aggressively selling the call option strikes.

Following is the list of stocks that have witnessed maximum change in their put-call ratio in yesterday's trade.
PCR Open Interest
UnderlineCurrentPrevious% Change

PCR Volume
UnderlineCurrentPrevious% Change

Tuesday, 12 June 2018

कमोडिटी बाजार|आज दुनिया भर की नजर अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति ट्रंप और उत्तर कोरिया के राष्ट्रपति किम जोंग उन की बैठक पर है।

आज दुनिया भर की नजर अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति ट्रंप और उत्तर कोरिया के राष्ट्रपति किम जोंग उन की बैठक पर है। पहली दौर की बातचीत के बाद दोनों नेताओं ने बैठक को सकारात्मक बताया है। बैठक मिले अच्छे संकेतों से सोने में कमजोरी है। कॉमेक्स पर सोना 1296 डॉलर के करीब है। कल की तेजी के बाद चांदी में भी गिरावट देखने को मिल रही है।

कच्चे तेल में कोई साफ रुझान नहीं है। ब्रेंट स्थिर है, वहीं नायमेक्स क्रूड में हल्की बढ़त देखने को मिल रही है। बाजार की नजर 22 जून को होने वाली ओपेक की बैठक पर है। बेस मेटल्स में आज कमजोरी देखने को मिल रही है। शंघाई में कॉपर करीब 0.5 फीसदी टूटा है। वहीं निकेल में 0.25 फीसदी की कमजोरी है। करेंसी मार्केट की बात करें तो डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपये में आज फिर कमजोरी दिख रही है। एक डॉलर की कीमत 67 50 पैसे के करीब है।

 MCX CALL: BUY GOLD ABOVE 31160 TARGETS 31200 / 31250 / 31320 STOPLOSS 31090

Monday, 11 June 2018

Nifty PSU Bank surges; PNB up 4%

Nifty PSU Bank was up 1.51% today and was one of the highest gainers among the NSE Nifty indices. This was mainly attributed to Punjab National Bank’s announcement that it will divest stake in its subsidiary PNB Housing Finance, BSE, ICRA and CRISIL. With this, PNB aims to implement the PSB's Reforms Agenda dated January 24, 2018 for responsive and responsible PSBs. 
PNB Housing Finance is one of the main subsidiaries of PNB and it has a stake of 32.96% in the subsidiary as on March 31, 2018.

Meanwhile, Nifty surged higher in the early trades after opening on a positive note. Nifty has also surpassed its crucial resistance zone of 10,820 levels indicating strength. Bank Nifty too has moved higher heading towards its resistance of 10,760 levels.

Punjab National Bank is currently trading at Rs94.10 up by Rs3.7 or 4.09% from its previous closing of Rs90.40 on the BSE.
The scrip opened at Rs92 and has touched a high and low of Rs94.65 and Rs91.20 respectively. So far 1,95,13,343 (NSE+BSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs24,955.58cr.

Saturday, 9 June 2018

आरबीआई की ओर से रेपो, रिवर्स रेपो दरें बढ़ते ही बैंकों ने भी बढ़ाईं ब्याज दरें

भारतीय रिजर्व बैंक (आरबीआई) की ओर से रेपो और रिवर्स रेपो दरों में चौथाई फीसदी बढ़ोतरी करने के अगले ही दिन बैंकों ने भी कर्ज की ब्याज दरें बढ़ा दी हैं। इसके साथ ही मकान, वाहन और कारोबार के लिए कर्ज लेने वालों की मासिक किस्त (ईएमआई) भी बढ़ जाएगी। भारतीय स्टेट बैंक, आईसीआईसीआई बैंक और एचडीएफसी बैंक ने केंद्रीय बैंक से कर्ज लेने की ब्याज दर (रेपो दर) में वृद्धि के साथ ही अपनी फंड आधारित कर्ज दर की मार्जिनल लागत (एमसीएलआर) बढ़ा दी है। 
केंद्रीय बैंक ने बुधवार को अपनी द्विमासिक मौद्रिक नीति में साढ़े चार साल के बाद पहली बार रेपो और रिवर्स रेपो दरों में 25 बेसिक प्वाइंट की वृद्धि की घोषणा की थी। बड़े बैंकों के एलान के बाद इंडियन बैंक ने भी स्टॉक एक्सचेंज को 3 महीने से लेकर 5 साल की अवधि वाले कर्ज पर 10 बेसिक प्वाइंट एमसीएलआर बढ़ाने की सूचना दी है। इसी तरह करूर वैश्य बैंक ने भी छह महीने से एक साल की अवधि वाले कर्ज पर 10 बेसिक प्वाइंट एमसीएलआर बढ़ाने की घोषणा की है। 

Friday, 8 June 2018

Asian stocks retreat as investors shift focus to G-7 meet

Businessman with a stock market of china
Asian equities retreated, paring the best weekly gain in almost four months, as investors turned their attention to the G-7 Summit in Quebec, Canada, this weekend for a showdown between the US and their trading partners.

The MSCI Asia Pacific index fell 0.6% to 175 in Hong Kong. While the measure pared its five-day gain to 1.8%, it’s still poised for the best weekly advance since February 16. Benchmark stock gauges in Hong Kong, Korea, and China all slipped.

Asian stocks have made some decent gains recently,” said John Teja, a director at PT Ciptadana Sekuritas Asia in Jakarta.

“Investors decided to realize some of their gains while waiting for the next development on trade from the G-7 meeting this weekend as well as the Fed meeting next week,” Teja added.


Thursday, 7 June 2018

Markets post another session of strong gains

Markets continued the positive momentum built from the previous trading session with broad based buying witnessed, and all the sectoral indices managing to end the day in the green. However, markets were not able to sustain the gains witnessing profit booking in the final hour of trade, with the major averages ending a tad lower. Nifty Small cap 100 index was the best performing index ending 2.15% higher.

Tracking the derivative data points, Nifty futures and Bank Nifty Futures witnessed a surge in open interest to the tune of ~ 14.75 lakh shares and ~1.51 lakh shares, respectively indicating a build-up of fresh long positions.  

On the options front, put writing was witnessed in all major out of the money strikes with 10700PE and 10600PE adding nearly ~11.07 lakh shares and ~3.13 lakh shares, respectively while call unwinding was witnessed in 10800C to the tune of ~2.92 lakh shares.

India VIX index ended the session 1.81% higher at 12.77.

Nifty  +83 points @ 10768
Bank Nifty+150 points @ 26517
Top 2 F&O GainerHDIL,SAIL
Most Active Index Option Contract
Call Option10800CE, O.I:-2.92 lakh shares
Put Option10700PE, O.I:+11.07 lakh shares
Nifty Max O.I Strikes11000CE, 10600PE