India's trade deficit widens on rebound in crude oil prices - Highlight Investment Research

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Saturday 16 February 2019

India's trade deficit widens on rebound in crude oil prices

India’s trade deficit widened in January from a month ago as a rebound in oil prices weighed on the nation’s import bill. 

The gap between exports and imports was $14.7bn in January, compared with $13bn in December, data released by the Commerce Ministry showed on Friday. The deficit is wider than the $13.6bn median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 20 economists.

 

Exports rose 3.7% from a year ago to $26.4bn, compared with a 0.3% gain in December, while imports growth was flat year-on-year at $41.1bn versus a 2.4% drop in the previous month.

 

Key Insights

 

While weak global demand and trade tensions meant India’s exports performance remained subdued, imports growth was also muted owing to weak domestic demand for non-oil goods, including for gold, on a month-on-month basis.

 

Curbing imports is crucial for India to contain its current account deficit, seen as a key vulnerability for the rupee, Asia’s worst-performing currency so far this year.

 

India has been trying, though without much success, to scale up local manufacturing to cut reliance on imports. A rebound in crude prices remains a risk for the nation, which counts oil as its top import.

 

Oil imports increased to $11.24bn in January from $10.7bn in December.

 

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