Sun Pharma’s US business is likely to remain flat, while its India business is expected to clock in 20%+ revenue growth. Taro already reported a weak set of numbers in the last quarter.
Consensus estimates for Q1FY19E
Consensus estimates for Q1FY19E
- Revenue – Expected to grow 11.2% yoy to Rs6,901cr. Sun Pharma’s India revenue is expected to grow 20%+ in Q1FY19E due to the lower base in Q1FY18. US revenue should be flat as base business erosion should offset revenue from gWelchol, gNexium, and Methadone HCL. Taro reported 11.1% yoy volume growth but 4.2% decline in revenue due to US pricing pressure.
- EBITDA – Expected to grow at 38.4% yoy, however, 10% qoq decline is expected to Rs1,517cr in Q1FY19E due to additional costs related to Ilumya/Yonsa launch and promotional activities as well as pricing erosion in the US base business. EBITDA margins estimated to expand by 433bps yoy, but contract 215 bps qoq. Taro's operating margins declined 730 bps yoy.
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